本次“会长办公室扩大会议”在沧州召开，会议得到了无锡中粮工程科技有限公司、中粮工程装备（南皮）有限公司的大力支持和精心安排，保证了会议的顺利召开。对此，我代表 中国粮油学会油脂分会和全体与会代表表示衷心的感谢。
    在具体研究工作之前，我先就有关2013年我国食用油市场供需情况和国家加快木本油料产业发展的意见向大家通报一些情况，供大家参考。
1   2013年我国食用油市场供需分析
1 . 1  2013年我国的油料产量及榨油量
2013年，我国食用油市场总体情况可概况为以下几句话：国产油料产量及榨油量与上年基本持平；以大豆为代表的进口油料数量再创历史新高，进口油脂油料的折油总计继续增长，但增幅呈下降趋势；国内油脂市场货源充足，节余继续增加。
根据国家粮油信息中心预测，2013年我国油菜籽、大豆、花生、棉籽、葵花籽、芝麻、油茶籽、亚麻籽八大油料总产量为5846.8万t ，与2012年实际产量5972.3万t 基本持平。预测2013年八大油料产量分别为：油菜籽1440万t ，大豆1180万 t ，花生1700万t，棉籽1135.8万t，葵花籽235万t，芝麻63.5万 t ，油茶籽190万t，亚麻籽38.4万t（见表1）。
据预测，2013年我国国产品油料的榨油量（除大豆、花生、芝麻和葵花籽4种油料部分直接食用外）为1169.4万t（见表2），与2012年国产油料榨油量1159.2万t 相比，增加10.2万t 。
 
                    
                     
                             表1  1991—2013年我国主要油料生产情况                             万 t
   年份     油料总产量    棉籽      大豆      其他油料     油菜籽    花生    葵花籽    芝麻   亚麻籽    油茶籽
   1991      3 631.1    1 021.5    971.3      1 638.3       763.6    630.3   142.2     43.5    51.5      62.1
   1992      3 483.0     811.4   1 030.4      1 641.2       765.3    595.3   147.3     51.6    52.0      62.9 
   1993      4 007.6     673.0   1 530.7      1 803.9       693.6    842.1   128.2     56.3    49.6      48.8
   1994      4 371.0     781.4   1 600.0      1 989.6       749.2    968.2   136.7     54.8    51.1      63.1
   1995      4 458.5     858.2   1 350.0      2 250.3       977.7   1023.5   126.9     58.3    36.4      62.3
   1996      4 289.1     756.5   1 322.0      2 210.6       920.1   1013.8   132.3     57.5    55.3      69.7
   1997      4 458.7     828.5   1 472.8      2 157.4       957.8    964.8   117.6     56.6    39.3      85.7
   1998      4 639.3     810.2   1 515.2      2 313.9       830.1   1188.6   146.5     65.6    52.3      72.3
   1999      4 715.5     689.2   1 425.1      2 601.2      1013.2   1263.9   176.5     74.3    40.4      79.3
   2000      5 291.0     795.1   1 541.1      2 954.8      1138.1   1443.7   195.4     81.1    34.4      82.3
   2001      5 363.8     958.2   1 540.7      2 864.9      1133.1   1441.6   147.8     80.4    24.3      82.5
   2002      5 378.8     830.9   1 650.7      2 897.2      1055.2   1481.8   194.6     89.5    40.9      85.5
   2003      5 225.1     874.7   1 539.4      2 811.0      1142.0   1342.0   174.3     59.3    45.0      78.0
   2004      5 944.5    1138.2   1 740.4      3 065.9      1318.2   1434.2   155.2     70.4    42.6      87.5
   2005      5 740.7    1028.6   1 635.0      3 077.1      1305.2   1434.2   192.8     62.5    36.2      87.5
   2006      5 504.4    1355.9   1 508.2      2 640.3      1096.6   1273.8   144.0     66.2    37.4      92.0
   2007      5 213.5    1372.3   1 272.5      2 568.7      1057.3   1302.7   118.7     55.7    26.8      93.9 
   2008      5 855.9    1348.6   1 554.5      2 952.8      1210.2   1428.6   179.2     58.6    35.0      99.0
   2009      5 800.3    1147.9   1 498.1      3 154.3      1365.7   1470.8   195.6     62.2    31.8      116.9
   2010      5 811.4    1073.0   1 508.3      3 230.1      1308.2   1564.4   229.8     58.7    32.4      109.2
   2011      5 941.3    1186.0   1 448.5      3 306.8      1342.6   1604.6   231.3     60.6    35.9      148.0
   2012      5 846.8    1230.5   1 305.0      3 436.8      1400.7   1669.2   232.3     63.9    39.1      172.8
   2013      5 846.8    1135.8   1 180.0      3 531.0      1440.0   1700.0   235.0     63.5    38.5      190.0
               表2   2013年国产油料榨油量预测                     
品种       产量/万t        压榨量/万t       榨油量/万t          出油率/ %
油菜籽     1440.0           1320.0           468.6                 35.5  
花生       1700.0           780.0            245.7                 31.5
棉籽       1135.8           1030.0           133.9                 13.0
大豆       1180.0           400.0             66.0                 16.5
葵花籽     235.0            120.0             30.0                 25.0
油茶籽     190.0            180.0             45.0                 25.0
亚麻籽     38.5             30.0               9.0                 30.0
芝麻       63.5             36.0              16.2                 45.0
玉米油                                        70.0               
米糠油                                        80.0               
其他                                           5.0
合计                                         1169.4                    
注：资料来自国家粮油信息中心。
 从表1和表2可以看出，自2011年起我国油茶籽的产量与榨油量增长幅度较大，其中2013年的预测产量与榨油量都较2012年增长9% ~ 10%。这充分说明，在国家的支持与扶持下，我国油茶产业的发展足有成效。另外需要说明的是，玉米油和米糠油的榨油量预测可能有误，建议采用国家粮食局的粮油工业统计数据。
1 . 2  2013年我国油脂油料的进出口情况
为满足食用油市场供应日益增长的需要，2013年我国进口油脂油料的数量继续呈上升趋势。据海关总署统计，2013年我国进口油脂油料的折油总计达2 453.9万t ，较2012年增长3.00%，与2012年较2011年增长20.48%相比，增幅开始趋缓。其中，进口大豆6 337.5万t 、油菜籽366.2万t 、花生1.9万t 、芝麻44.1万t ；进口大豆油115.8万 t 、棕榈油597.9 万t 、菜籽油152.7万t 、花生油6.1万t 、橄榄油及其分离品3.7万t、其他植物油55.7万t 、人造黄油24.6万 t （见表3、表4）。另据统计，2013年出口油脂油料的折油总计为26.2万t ，较上年增长0.17%（见表5）。
 
                               表3    1996—2013 年我国油脂油料进口量                    万 t                                          
 年份                              油料进口量                               植物油进口量                                                                   
           大豆         油菜籽         总量           大豆油          棕榈油         菜籽油             其他植物油       
1996        110.8        0            264.0            129.5            101.2           31.6                  1.7
1997        279.2       5.5           275.0            119.3            114.6           35.1                  6.0
1998        319.6       138.6         206.1            82.9             93.0            28.5                  1.7
1999        431.5       259.5         208.0            80.4             119.4           6.9                   1.3
2000       1041.6       2969          187.3            30.8             139.1           7.5                   9.9    
2001       1393.7       172.4         167.4            7.0              151.7           4.9                   3.8
2002       1131.5       61.8          321.2            87.0             222.1           7.8                   4.3
2003       2074.1       16.7          541.8            188.4            332.5           15.2                  5.7
2004       2022.9       42.4          676.5            251.7            385.7           35.3                  3.8
2005       2659.0       29.6          621.3            169.4            433.0           17.8                  1.1
2006       2827.0       73.8          671.5            154.3            508.2           4.4                   4.6
2007       3082.1       83.3          839.7            282.3            509.5           37.5                 10.4
2008       3743.6       130.3         816.3            258.6            528.2           27.0                  2.5
2009       4255.2       328.6         950.2            239.1            644.1           46.8                 20.2
2010       5479.7       160.0         826.2            134.1            569.6           98.5                 24.0
2011       5264.0       126.2         779.8            114.3            591.2           55.1                 19.2
2012       5838.4       293.0         960.0            182.6            634.1           117.6                25.7
2013       6337.5       366.2         922.1            115.8            597.9           152.7                55.7       
注：资料来自国家粮食信息中心。
 
 
                                           表4   2013年我国油脂油料进口统计   
 
 商品名称                                             12月数量/t                               1 — 12月累计            
                                                                                       数量/t            与上年同比/ %
大豆油                                               89 500.52                      1 157 586.31           -36.61
棕榈油                                               652 502.75                     5 979 071.05            -5.71
其中：硬脂                                           108 549.79                     1 105 228.15            -0.49
菜籽油或芥子油                                       89 410.11                      1 526 832.99            29.85
初榨椰子油                                           2 183.99                       30 521.78              -77.09
其他椰子油                                           4 889.42                       100 160.75              34.30
初榨棕榈仁油或巴巴苏棕榈果油                         23 430.30                      188 069.14             -27.60
其他初榨棕榈仁油或巴巴苏棕榈果油及其分离品           45 685.75                      426 071.83              88.68
初榨亚麻籽油                                         997.44                         17 557.91              -52.01
其他亚麻籽油                                         19.78                          738.86                 -27.28
芝麻油                                               133.33                         2 244.89                 7.18
人造黄油                                             29 687.68                      254 746.13             -29.15
其中：混合油                                         1 526.34                       18 468.38               22.67
橄榄油及其分离品                                     3 459.14                       36 703.21              -11.08
花生油                                               3 839.44                       61 030.57               -3.39
初榨葵花籽有或红花籽油                               77 089.88                      432 767.40             313.60
其他葵花籽有或红花籽油                               381.81                         3 239.95                49.93
大豆                                                 7 402 442.83                   63 375 349.99            8.55
油菜籽                                               506 509.40                     3 662 410.23            25.01
花生                                                 710.44                         19 162.46              -16.38
其中：花生仁                                         0.00                           0.00                     —
其他芝麻                                             18 205.30                      441 111.51              11.49
葵花籽                                               1 043.45                       1 828.45               -38.56
亚麻籽                                               21 387.41                      180 649.78              22.13
起酥油                                               26 608.12                      211 801.96             -32.92
折油总计                                             2 692 190.37                   24 539 672.18            3.00
注：资料来自海关总署。
                                 表5     2013年我国油脂油料进口统计   
 
 商品名称                                             12月数量/t                               1—12月累计                     
                                                                                      数量/t          与上年同比/ %
大豆油                                                 6379.81                        89612.21              37.05
棕榈油                                                  255.12                         2005.72             130.24
其中：硬脂                                                0.00                           40.16               -
花生油                                                 1297.76                         7444.57              -9.43
菜籽油或芥籽油                                          694.05                         6208.99              -6.36
芝麻油                                                  487.45                         3566.97              -6.28
初榨亚麻籽油                                              1.23                          258.30             -22.81
其他亚麻籽油                                             17.11                          991.55             -12.32
其他葵花籽有或红花油                                     39.44                          157.03             -14.23
人造黄油                                                955.31                         7691.09             -10.29
其中：混合油                                              0.00                            0.00                -
花生                                                 19 369.77                      134 739.82              -7.75
其中：花生仁                                              0.00                            0.00                -
大豆                                                   9563.70                      208 968.71             -34.72
油菜籽                                                    0.00                          162.28             -51.63
葵花籽                                               30 537.70                      190 413.87               3.37
亚麻籽                                                  692.92                        3 749.30              11.21
种用芝麻                                                  0.00                            1.65             253.00
其他芝麻                                              4 018.24                       34 125.76              -7.60
红花籽                                                    0.00                          119.69             -93.30
初榨葵花籽有或红花籽油                                  125.05                        1 146.23              13.89
折油总计                                             27 728.55                      261 799.47               0.17    
注：资料来自海关总署。
 
 
1 . 3    2013年我国食用油市场产销情况
       根据国家粮油信息中心对我国食用油市场综合平衡分析，2012/2013年度，我国食用油市场的总供给量为3 374.3万t ，其中包括国产油料和进口油料合计生产的食用油2 371.5万t ，及直接进口的各种食用油1 002.8万t （见表6）。
                     表6    2012/2013年度我国食用油市场综合平衡分析                               万t 
指标              大豆油         菜籽油        棉籽油        花生油         棕榈油      其他油脂        总计
生产量            1 155.5          587.9          143.0         245.1             0.0         240.0        2371.5
进口量               40.9          153.3            0.0           6.5           658.9          43.2        1002.8
年度供给量        1 296.4          741.2          143.0         251.6           658.9         283.2        3374.3
国内食用消费      1 140.0          550.0          135.0         250.0           470.0         210.0        2755.0
工业及其他消费      105.0            0.0            0.0           0.0           130.0          40.0         275.0
出口量                8.4            0.6            0.1           0.6             0.0           1.1          10.8
年度需求总量      1 253.4          550.6          135.1         250.6           600.0         251.1        3040.8
节余量               43.0          190.6            7.9           1.0            58.9          32.1         333.5      
注：资料来自国家粮食信息中心。
从表6可以看出，2012/2013年度我国食用油的食用消费为2 755.0万t ，工业及其他消费为275.0万t ，出口油脂油料的折油总计为10.8万t ，合计年度需求总量为3 040.8万t，年度节余量为333.5万t 。这里，我们可以推算出2012/2013年度我国食用油的自给率为38.5%(即2013年国产油料榨油量用油（1 169.4万t ）与年度需求总量（3 040.8万t）之比）。